​

Quick start (Telegram)

1. Paste a Polymarket link (market or event).

2. Optional: set your mode — /mode ai, /mode market, or /mode blend (default).

3. Optional: report style — /report short or /report full.

4. You’ll get: probability, edge vs. market, YES/NO value bands, confidence, key signals, what to watch, and sources.

Examples

• /predict https://polymarket.com/market/…

• /refresh <link> (forces fresh research, ignores cache)

• /status, /help

How it works (AI inside)

1. Link resolver — identifies the exact market from a market or event URL.

2. Market data — reads mid-price, spread, volume, momentum, time to close.

3. Web research — queries reputable sources (e.g., Reuters/AP/Wikipedia), extracts clean text and publication dates.

4. AI synthesis — an LLM ingests those snippets and produces structured judgments:

   • Probability (YES), confidence, key points, catalysts, and source list.

5. Blend engine — combines Quant (market signals) with AI per your chosen mode, and computes edge + value bands.

Output anatomy

• YES probability — headline forecast.

• Market baseline — raw market imputed probability.

• Edge (pp) — difference vs. market.

• Value bands — thresholds where YES/NO is attractive given uncertainty.

• Confidence meter — spread-, volume-, and AI-aware.

• Key signals — AI-extracted bullets from sources.

• What to watch — upcoming catalysts.

• Sources — links you can verify.

Tips

• Use /blend (default) for balanced calls; /ai for research-heavy; /market when liquidity is high and spreads are tight.

• /refresh before major news or close to resolution.

• Prefer /report full when you want the reasoning and citations.